Back-to-School Outlook Upbeat

By Jeanine Poggi

Published:  July 9, 2007

NEW YORK — Even with the newest gadgets vying for teens’ attention, footwear and apparel are expected to remain top performers during the all-important back-to-school season.

That was the consensus of a panel of analysts and fashion gurus at the Back-To-School Roundtable hosted by WWD, Footwear News’ sister publication, and Berns Communication Group.

The experts, among them Dana Telsey, chief research analyst at Telsey Advisory Group; Irma Zandl, principal at the Zandl Group; Tim Bess, market analyst, and Kathy Bradley-Riley, SVP of merchandising, both from The Doneger Group, gathered to discuss the economic outlook and new trends headed into fall.

While parents may be worried by the slowed housing market and surging gas prices, teens are relatively immune to these fiscal responsibilities, the panel noted.

“Our concern is not so much gas prices or mortgages, it’s the other categories vying for the kids’ dollars,” Bradley-Riley explained. “The right electronic equipment, the right cell phone, the iPod; there’s only a certain amount of dollars to spend, and those categories are getting first preference, as opposed to ‘Do I have the right shorts?’”

But the panel does expect fresh footwear styles to give young men a reason to shop this season. “For the young male customer, it all starts with the shoe,” Bradley-Riley said. “Getting the right shoe is key, and then you work yourself up.”

“I think that’s the new luxury market for young men,” added Bess. “It’s all about exclusive footwear. It’s definitely bringing in drastic new colors — kids are going in to try and match up their sneakers or their shoelaces.”

The panel explained that while exclusive footwear styles are gaining traction among male teens, the idea of exclusivity, in general, is increasingly important to both young men and women shoppers.

“It’s more important to have an exclusive item. It doesn’t necessarily have to be a high price. It just has to be the right item that’s hard to find,” Bess said. “I also think a lot more kids are shopping, believe it or not, in the Barneys of the world, walking through those more premium designer stores, looking for the next cool brand or item.”

While luxury merchandise found at purveyors such as Barneys New York is not a big portion of the teen market, there has been a surge in brand awareness among teen consumers, the panel said. Designer accessories, especially handbags, are popular with teens who are looking to mimic their favorite celebrities.

“We find, in general, only about 10 percent of teens genuinely buy luxury — like going to Los Angeles and dropping $1,000,” Telsey said. “But they do set trends for everybody else.”

At the other end of the spectrum, teens are also spending their dollars at discounters such as Target and Wal-Mart and department stores like Macy’s.

“I hear of moms and teenagers going to a store like that to get everything. And especially with gas prices, it’s a good thing to be able to go to one store where you can get everything all at once,” Zandl said.

“I think some of the mid-tier department stores are doing a really good job of having fashion-right products on the floors at affordable prices,” Bradley-Riley added.

Regardless of where teens are shopping, when it comes to footwear and apparel, now more than ever they are looking for instant gratification, the panel explained. “The push to wear it now is very real,” Telsey said.

Most teens will kick off the school year with just some basics, and once they see what their friends are wearing there will be a surge in spending. That trend will cause the season to extend through September and into October, despite the fact that the last week in July should signal the beginning of the back-to-school push for retailers.

“There is a business there, kids do need some new clothes before they go back to school,” Bradley-Riley said. “Maybe they’re more season-less and buy-now wear-now, but there are clothes that they’ll buy before going back to school.”